| SIGNAL | VALUE | BIAS | IMPLICATION |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y-2Y spread | +49bp | Positive | Yield curve normal — no inversion |
| Oil shock (WTI) | $93→$119 | Bearish | Stagflation risk rising sharply |
| Gold pullback | $5,296→$4,610 | Neutral | Profit-taking after safe-haven surge |
| Fed dot plot | 1 cut in '26 | Hawkish | 7/19 members want no cuts this year |
| BTC fear/greed | 15 | Extreme fear | Historically near bottom signals |
| Hormuz blockade | ~20% supply | Critical | Largest oil disruption since 1970s |
| PPI surprise | +0.7% vs 0.3% | Hot | Pipeline inflation pressure building |
| Global equities | Asia -2 to -3% | Sell-off | Energy shock contagion spreading |
| USD strength | DXY 103.8 | Safe haven | Dollar catching flight-to-safety bid |
| Japan policy | BOJ hold 0.75% | Hawkish bias | April hike speculation building |